NFL Week 3 picks and predictions

atlanticcityweekly.com 10 days ago
Chargers Chiefs Football
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are one of nine road teams that are favored Sunday in Week 3.
A matchup of future, first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks highlights the Week 3 slate as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

Sometimes you've got to go against the grain. Especially when you're in a slump.

Week 3 in the NFL is that time for me.

I know, I know, it's too early to panic (cue the cliches!), there's a lot of football to be played. But there's also no time like the present to get back in the game.

And it starts now.

There are nine games this week where the home team is the underdog. But so far this season, that's not been a bad thing.

Last week, home team underdogs went 4-1-1 against the spread, while underdogs in general went 10-5-1, according to CBSSportsHQ. For the season, underdogs have won 58% of their games ATS through two weeks, going 18-13-1, while home underdogs are winning 64% of the time ATS (9-5-1).

So we should go with the home dogs this week, right? Not so fast.

Again, we're looking to turn the tide. So (and hear me out) ... out of 15 games this Sunday, where nine of the home teams are underdogs, I've got 12 road teams winning straight up and eight of them covering.

There a method to the madness, aside from sheer desperation: First we know that the opening two weeks of the NFL season have been crazy -- historically crazy. And crazy can't last 17 weeks. Can it?

The trends will level out.

Last year, according to records on teamrankings.com, home underdogs finished the season 36% (38-68) ATS. And over the last five years as home underdogs, the eight teams I picked against are 55-95 (37%) ATS, while the eight road favorites in that same time frame are 117-45 (72%) ATS.